The Numbers That Matter
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Warming since pre-industrial | 1.2°C | IPCC AR6 |
| 1.5°C threshold breach likely | 2027 | WMO 2023 |
| Current trajectory (2100) | 2.7°C | UNEP Gap Report |
| Carbon budget used | 80% of 1.5°C limit | IPCC |
The Human Cost
| Cause | Annual Deaths | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Air pollution (fossil fuels) | 8.7 million | Harvard/UCL |
| Heat-related | ~500,000 | Lancet |
| Extreme weather | ~15,000 | EM-DAT |
| People at high risk | 3.6 billion | IPCC |
The Key Statistic
More people die from fossil fuel air pollution than from COVID-19 at its peak.
The Subsidy Scandal
| Category | Annual Amount |
|---|---|
| Fossil fuel subsidies (IMF 2023) | $7.0 trillion |
| Climate investment needed | $2.8 trillion |
| Difference | $4.2 trillion surplus |
The Math
We pay 2.5× more to subsidize the problem than it would cost to solve it.
Who Causes It
| Group | % of Emissions |
|---|---|
| Top 1% globally | 17% |
| Top 10% globally | 50% |
| Bottom 50% globally | 8% |
| Country/Region | Historical Cumulative (1850-2023) |
|---|---|
| United States | 25% |
| European Union | 22% |
| China | 14% |
| All of Africa | 3% |
The Conclusion
Climate change is not a collective failure. It is caused by a wealthy few. The richest 10% cause half of all emissions. The developed world used the atmospheric commons for 150 years. Now it's full.
The Solutions Exist
| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Solar cost decline (2010-2022) | 89% |
| Wind cost decline (2010-2022) | 70% |
| Solar cheaper than fossil | In 2/3 of world |
| Return: $1 in climate mitigation | $4-20 avoided damages |
The Cascade Effect
Climate drives all other crises downstream:
- Water scarcity: 4 billion at risk from drought and glacier loss
- Food insecurity: 800 million affected by crop failure
- Conflict: Syria, Darfur, Lake Chad linked to climate stress
- Migration: 1.2 billion at risk of displacement
This is why climate investment has the highest return on intervention.