The Central Finding
The world's largest oil companies had internal scientific evidence of climate change decades before public action was possible. Rather than disclose their findings, they funded doubt, lobbied against policy, and expanded production.
ExxonMobil: Internal Science (1977-1982)
| Year | Internal Finding |
|---|---|
| 1977 | Senior scientist warned board of CO2 greenhouse effect |
| 1978 | Internal memo: "present trend of fossil fuel use will cause dramatic environmental effects" |
| 1981 | Projected CO2 levels and temperature rises accurately |
| 1982 | Detailed internal reports on "potentially catastrophic" climate impacts |
Accuracy of 1982 Projections
| Metric | Exxon 1982 | Actual (2020) | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| CO2 level | ~415 ppm | 415 ppm | Within 1% |
| Temperature rise | +1°C | +1.1°C | Exactly right |
Exxon's scientists were as accurate as the IPCC—40 years earlier.
Shell: The 1988 Confidential Report
Shell produced a 122-page internal report titled "The Greenhouse Effect":
| Topic | Shell's Assessment |
|---|---|
| Cause | "Human activities" releasing greenhouse gases |
| Confidence | "Scientific consensus" |
| Impact | "Changes may be the largest in recorded history" |
| Sea level | "Could rise by a metre" |
In 1991, Shell produced "Climate of Concern"—an educational film for schools explaining climate change. They then spent decades undermining the very science they had publicly acknowledged.
The Pivot to Denial (1988)
| Year | Action |
|---|---|
| 1988 | Began funding climate denial organizations |
| 1989 | Founded Global Climate Coalition |
| 1998-2014 | $31+ million documented to denial groups (Exxon) |
Organizations Funded
- Global Climate Coalition
- American Petroleum Institute
- Competitive Enterprise Institute
- Heartland Institute
- George C. Marshall Institute
The Top Emitters
| Company | % of Global Emissions (1965-2017) |
|---|---|
| Saudi Aramco | 4.4% |
| Chevron | 3.2% |
| Gazprom | 3.1% |
| ExxonMobil | 2.0% |
| National Iranian Oil | 2.0% |
| Top 100 companies | 71% since 1988 |
Legal Accountability
In 2021, The Hague District Court ruled that Shell must cut emissions 45% by 2030, finding that climate change violates human rights. Shell is appealing.
Multiple jurisdictions have ongoing investigations and lawsuits against fossil fuel companies for climate deception.
The Lost Decades
| If They Had Told the Truth... | We Might Have... |
|---|---|
| Acknowledged science in 1980s | Acted 40 years earlier |
| Supported climate policy | Avoided worst impacts |
| Invested in renewables | Been carbon neutral by now |
They knew. They lied. They profited. The evidence is public record.
Sources
- InsideClimate News: "Exxon: The Road Not Taken"
- Los Angeles Times: Exxon investigation
- DeSmog: Shell documents
- The Guardian: Climate Files
- Columbia University: Climate Accountability Institute
- Carbon Disclosure Project: Carbon Majors Database
- Dutch court ruling (2021)